The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz following the U.S.–Iran agreement provides a positive signal for global energy markets, but logistics networks are expected to require between nine and twelve months to fully recover from disruptions affecting nearly two million containers. While oil prices have moderated, shipping companies and cargo owners continue to face elevated war-risk insurance premiums, vessel backlogs, and lingering navigational risks, all of which are likely to keep logistics costs above normal levels in the months ahead
June 17, 2026 marked a significant turning point for global maritime trade as the United States and Iran officially signed a memorandum of understanding to lift the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, bringing an end to more than three months of disruption along one of the world’s most critical energy corridors. The announcement immediately impacted energy markets, with Brent crude falling 1.2% during Asian trading hours to USD 78.62 per barrel. Data from MarineTraffic and Nikkei Asia showed tankers that had been anchored off the coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) beginning to move within hours of the naval restrictions being lifted. According to AFP, a total of 25 commercial vessels transited the strait on June 18, the highest daily figure since April, though still well below the pre-conflict average of approximately 120 vessels per day.
Despite the gradual resumption of vessel movements, global supply chains continue to operate under a fragile “new normal,” with an estimated two million containers directly or indirectly affected by the disruption. According to shipping intelligence provider Kpler, approximately 118 oil tankers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf, and clearing the accumulated backlog is expected to take at least 10–15 days. Adam Sharpe, Vice President of Lloyd’s List Intelligence, noted that recovery will occur in phases, with crude oil tankers and LNG carriers receiving priority passage. As a result, containerized cargo and other freight segments are likely to face longer delays before normal service schedules can be restored.
The prolonged closure has also severely disrupted global equipment circulation, creating significant container imbalances across multiple trade lanes. While large volumes of loaded containers remain trapped in the Gulf region, empty containers have accumulated at major transshipment hubs in Europe and South Asia as shipping lines rerouted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope. Experts at Hapag-Lloyd estimate that it could take at least six weeks to stabilize their network operations. However, Yuki Togano of the Japan Research Institute projects a longer recovery timeline, suggesting that fully restoring navigation through the strait may require up to three months, followed by an additional two to three months for oil production levels to normalize.
Logistics pressure is now shifting toward major transshipment hubs such as Jebel Ali, Singapore, and Tanjung Pelepas as delayed vessels are gradually released back into the network. Industry analysts compare the situation to reopening a blocked highway after a major accident: while traffic begins moving again at the bottleneck, congestion quickly emerges at downstream intersections. For Vietnamese importers and exporters, transportation costs remain elevated as carriers continue to adjust vessel schedules, redeploy fleets, and absorb the operational impact of months-long disruptions.
Another critical challenge is the continued presence of approximately 80 naval mines within the central shipping lanes of the Strait of Hormuz, preventing maritime traffic from returning to full operational capacity. Marine insurers continue to maintain war-risk premiums at exceptionally high levels, ranging from 3% to 8% of vessel value compared with the normal rate of around 0.25%. This translates into additional insurance costs of up to USD 8 million per voyage for some crude oil tankers. Industry observers are also closely monitoring discussions surrounding “maritime services” referenced in the U.S.–Iran memorandum, which could potentially open the door to transit-related charges on a waterway that has historically remained free for international navigation.
Although the reopening of Hormuz has eased immediate concerns over energy security and cargo flows, experts believe it may take between nine and twelve months for global logistics networks to fully rebalance equipment, restore schedule reliability, and return supply chains to pre-disruption conditions. During this prolonged transition period, shippers, freight forwarders, and carriers will need to maintain flexible contingency plans to navigate continued operational uncertainty.
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